The future – in the crowd’s forecasts.
We don’t just share what happens, but what the markets consider likely. Curated probabilities on the big future-tech questions – with our take. For us it’s about the data and the swarm behaviour, not betting.
Legal notice: Polymarket cannot be licensed in Germany; taking part is prohibited and a criminal offence. We show only public probability data for educational and research purposes – we do not broker bets, do not link to betting services and do not recommend participation.
Two swarms, one question.
What interests us here is collective forecasting behaviour – the wisdom of the crowd (swarm intelligence). We put two forecasting swarms side by side: Polymarket = real-money swarm (participants stake real amounts), Manifold = play-money swarm („Mana“, no real money – and therefore not gambling). The intriguing question: does the swarm judge differently when real money is at stake?
We are interested solely in the data and the swarm behaviour – for educational and illustrative purposes, not for betting. This is not investment, financial or betting advice, and we do not link to betting services.
Prediction market with real money: participants stake real amounts. We show only the publicly available probabilities – no betting brokerage, no links.
Important notice: Polymarket cannot be licensed in Germany – such an offering cannot be authorised here. Taking part from Germany is prohibited and a criminal offence. We only display the data and expressly advise against participating.
Prediction market with play money („Mana“): not convertible into cash – so not gambling. A large, active swarm assessing the same future questions.
🎯 You vs. the market
What do you think? Guess the probability – then we reveal what the crowd says.
⚖️ Real money vs. play money
Similar AI questions across two prediction markets: Polymarket (real money) alongside Manifold (play money, „Mana“).
Does the swarm judge differently when real money counts?
Surprisingly little. Studies show: play-money swarms forecast almost as accurately as real-money swarms – what matters is not the money, but how well the swarm pools knowledge. Real money (Polymarket) pays off above all in large, liquid markets through faster correction; otherwise the two are often only a few percentage points apart.
🏁 Track Record (Beta)
Who was closer on resolved questions? We score both swarms with the Brier score (lower = better).
The current barometer
A curated selection of three to five future-tech questions – chosen and contextualised by us. Updated weekly, not mirrored in real time.
📰 Editorial note: what has shifted
Where expectations have shifted the most lately.
✅ Recently resolved
Questions the market has now answered.
Context, not advice. The probabilities come from public prediction markets: Polymarket (real money) and Manifold (play money „Mana“, no real money). They show collective forecasting behaviour – not the School’s opinion. This is not investment, financial or betting advice; we do not link to betting services. Polymarket cannot be licensed in Germany; taking part there is prohibited and a criminal offence. We display public data only and do not broker bets. Prediction markets are not accessible in all countries. Values change continuously.